The latest polls on the 2020 democratic presidential primaries show that Elizabeth Warren is the top candidate right now, followed closely by Joe Biden. I’ve been following the developments loosely, and here are some thoughts.
That Bernie Sanders lags Warren is not a surprise given that they cater to the same type of people, namely people on the hard left. It’s pretty simple, really. Sanders and Warren are basically interchangeable in terms of policy. Yes, there might be differences here and there, but both of them are running on a more or less socialist agenda. Given this, if given a choice between a male and a female, the progressive base would for sure prefer a female. Also, Bernie is more a “has been” since he’s already run in the previous election, so one might look at Warren as a fresher face although even she has been in politics forever. And Sanders is old at 78 years of age and he’s had some health problems, having recently gone through heart surgery. Warren was born in 1949 so she’s younger and looks more fit than Sanders.
But the upshot of this is that Warren is probably going to clinch the democratic primary. On a standalone basis it would be a close call between Warren and Biden, judging by the polls (yes, polls have been notoriously wrong but it’s pretty much the only thing we can rely on). See the Bloomberg poll below, for example, in which Biden is at 29%, Warren is at 23%, and Sanders is at 16%. But if Sanders drops out and gives his endorsement to Warren, then it’s pretty much game over for Biden.
Then the question is, what would happen in a standoff between Warren and Trump during the 2020 elections? They are at opposite ends of the spectrum, and while Trump is the only narcissist and psychopath between the two, both are quite unacceptable to certain groups of people. Warren is unacceptable to people who have capital (the rich), as well as to those who are not quite rich yet but who want to get there soon. She would not be good for the stock markets or for investing in general. She is also unacceptable to a lot of men who feel threatened by her constant haranguing about how women are oppressed and men are (in not so many words) evil. But she’s got many fans among the left-leaning, both male and female and across ethnicities.
Trump is unacceptable to many women, and to the not-wealthy-but-aware crowd, i.e., highly educated people who earn less than a $100,000 a year, let’s say. He’s also unacceptable to people who value a conscience, empathy, consistency, stability, and the truth. But even a person like him has his fans, his core followers who’ll never budge even if he “shot someone dead on Fifth Avenue”. And at least he would be more pro-business and pro-markets.
So I am deeply troubled and conflicted this time. The rather centrist Biden would have been a much easier pill to swallow. He wouldn’t ruffle too many feathers. But at this point Biden doesn’t seem to stand much of a chance. Only time will tell how this plays out.
